In Support of the Facts - Palamida's GPLv3 Statistics

Noah Clements of Sidley Austin LLP recently posted a blog questioning Palamida's GPLv3 conversion numbers. Healthy debate is a sign of an involved and engaged community and therefore I felt it was important to respond directly to the points Noah makes to clarify key statements.

The inclusion of statistics specific to "GPL, or later" clauses on Palamida's GPLv3 site is intended to provide an indication of the current and future support for the Free Software Foundation (FSF) and the variants of the existing GPL licenses. By providing statistics on which licenses now include the "GPLv2 or later" clause and which are moving that direction, Palamida is in no way stating that these projects are to be considered actual conversions to the GPLv3 or LGPLv3 licenses.

Palamida's research team takes the responsibility of reporting accurate and detailed information very seriously and we work overtime to provide timely data regarding licensing issues, adoption of specific licenses, and their unique considerations such as the "or later" clause that leaves the license decision up to the individual user. We feel that the scope of this information is an important indicator of the OSS community's reaction to the new GPLv3 license. As Palamida continues to refine our site and enhance our data, we invite feedback and participation from our users, and in fact, require it in order to effectively improve upon how we deliver our content.
In the event that any of the information we provide lacks clarity, or as Noah feels, accuracy, we encourage users to contact us with their concerns and we will work to ensure that our reporting is made more clear in the future.

Should you have any questions or comments regarding the GPLv3 and OSS licensing related data, please feel free to contact me directly at ernest.park@palamida.com.
--Ernie Park

GPLv3: past the 5K mark, and going strong

Hi all -

I still continue to find articles on the internet downplaying the seemingly normal and sweeping adoption and acceptance of the GPLv3 license. This should point out a few things that indicate that GPLv3 is "here to stay".


We have quietly passed 5000 GPLv3 projects (and related) as a combined number from:

GPLv3
Or later
LGPLv3

A little associated background . . .
http://www.fsf.org/licensing/licenses/gpl-faq.html#TOCv2v3Compatibility
http://www.fsf.org/licensing/licenses/gpl-faq.html#VersionThreeOrLater
http://www.fsf.org/licensing/licenses/gpl-faq.html#AllCompatibility



Current total: 5100

Check it out at http://gpl3.palamida.com/

Rate of GPLv3 related discovery: 20~ day currently

What does this mean?

GPL projects hosted on SF: 102137 ( http://sourceforge.net/softwaremap/trove_list.php?form_cat=18 )
Estimated active projects: 15320, 15% of total ( http://asay.blogspot.com/2005/09/analyst-nature-and-size-of-open-source.html )

note - I corrected the formulas on 8/22/07 as follows

Original:

Total repository based OSS community: 145910 (SF total divided by 70%)
Estimated Total active Projects: 21886 (total * 15%)
Estimated total GPLv3 conversion, including "or later": 13078 (total active, times 77% GPL and 6% LGPL, times 72% estimated conversion rate)
Estimated current "or later" impact: 9082 (50% of GPL)

Therefore:

1. Or later – 4708 of 9082 projected – 52%
2. LGPLv3 – 30 of 723 projected – 4%
3. GPLv3 – 5100 of 13078 projected – 39%
4. GPL, not converted – 5086 projected (GPL projects times (100% - 72% convert rate))
5. Non GPL license – 3722 projected (Active projects – (Active GPL projects + not converted))

Corrected:

Total repository based OSS community: 208,442 (SF total * 70%)
Estimated Total active Projects: 31,226 (total divided by 15%)
Total active GPL: 25,917 (total active, divided by 77% GPL and 6% LGPL)
Estimated total GPLv3 conversion, including "or later": 18,660 (total active, divided by 77% GPL and 6% LGPL, divided by 72% estimated conversion rate)
Estimated current "or later" impact: 12,958 (50% of GPL)

Therefore:

1. Or later – 4708 of 12,958 projected – 36%
2. LGPLv3 – 30 of 1119 projected – 3% (GPL conversion divided by 6%)
3. GPLv3 – 5100 of 17,540 projected – 29% (GPL conversion divided by 94%)
4. GPL, not converted – 5224 projected (GPL projects times (100% - 72% convert rate))
5. Non GPL license – 2033 projected (Active projects – (Active GPL projects + not converted))
   
   All this in one month.
   
   
   So, what is the summary?
   
   Adoption and projects released under GPLv3 are as expected. The part that is often overlooked is the long standing impact of the "or later" clause, initially put into effect more than a decade ago as part of the language surrounding the GPLv2 License, or later, at the time and now, common among GPL licensed projects. This clause in effect guaranteed a wide spread "potential" of adoption of the license the day it was released.