GPL Project Watch List for the Week of 04/04/08

The GPL v3 Watch List is intended to give you a snapshot of the GPLv3/LGPLv3 adoption for March 29th through April 4th, 2008.



Affero Being Added To Our Database

Just to get the usual updates out of the way, our GPL v3 count is now at 2131 GPL v3 projects in the first week of April and our LGPL v3 count is at 179 LGPL v3 projects. Soon to be added to our database will be the GNU Affero GPL v3, since there has been much talk about the new license recently. There have been requests for us to track the AGPL v3 and as of next week, our database will support the license. Our graphs will also be updated to reflect the adoption of the license. The AGPL v3 has already gained a moderate amount of popularity since it closes the ASP loophole.

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GPLv3 adoption surpassed 50% of projection
Nine months following the heralded official release of the GPLv3 licenses, and with the more recent addition of the Affero GPLv3, adoption has surpassed 50% of my projections. What seemed like completely optimistic FUD when I initially projected adoption numbers of 17,540 to reach a saturation point seems now more like just a matter of time for another 9,000 project releases to adopt the many GPLv3 variants.

Explained in detail, the amount of new FOSS projects has climbed nearly 20%, with a current inventory of almost 250,000 to choose from. The GPLv3 adoption rates are steady, when viewed with the current numbers. Therefore, based on this big inventory increase in the last seven months, adoption is strong at over 41%, but compared with the initial projections made on 8/13/07, GPLv3 adoption is over 50%, and well on its way to replace its GPL predecessors.

Where do we stand now . . .


For a little background on the development of the formula below, read this first (http://gpl3.blogspot.com/2007/07/gplv3-overwhelming-support-if-you-know.html).

• Total repository based OSS community: 248,404 (SF total 173,883 as of 4/05/08 times 70%) 39,962 increase since 8/13/07


• Estimated Total active Projects: 37,260 (4/05/08 total multiplied by 15%) 6,034 increase since 8/13/07


• Total active GPL: 30,925 (4/05/08 total active, multiplied by 77% GPL and 6% LGPL) 5,008 increase since 8/13/07


• Estimated total GPLv3 conversion, including "or later": 22,266 (4/05/08 total active, divided by 72% estimated conversion rate) 3,606 increase since 8/13/07


• Estimated current "or later" impact: 15,462 (50% of 4/05/08 GPL) 2,504 increase since 8/13/07

Therefore:

• GPLv3 – 9045 (GPLv3, LGPLv3 and all "or later') of 20,930 projected – 41% (GPL conversion divided by 94%)


• LGPLv3 – 179 of 1335 projected – 13% (GPL conversion divided by 6%)


• Or later – 6735 of 15,462 projected – 43%


• GPL, not converted – 6234 projected (GPLv3 converted projects multiplied by (100% - 72% convert rate))


• Active Non GPL license – 6335 projected (Active projects – Active GPL projects)

But wait, here is the interesting thing . . .
If we adjust the percentages to correct for the growth in the size of the OSS projects currently available, we see a more interesting trend.

19% overall increase in current FOSS projects:

Therefore, adjusted for time:

• GPLv3 – 9045 (GPLv3, LGPLv3 and all "or later') of 17,540 8/13/07 projected – 52% (GPL conversion divided by 94%) (3390 additional projected as of 4/05/08)
• LGPLv3 – 179 of 1119 8/13/07 projected – 16% (GPL conversion divided by 6%) (216 additional projected as of 4/05/08)
• Or later – 6735 of 12,958 8/13/07 projected – 52% (2504 additional projected as of 4/05/08)

References:
http://gpl3.blogspot.com/2007/08/gplv3-past-5k-mark-and-going-strong.html
http://asay.blogspot.com/2005/09/analyst-nature-and-size-of-open-source.html
http://gpl3.blogspot.com/2008/03/gpl-project-watch-list-for-week-of-0321.html
http://www.cnet.com/8301-13505_1-9744527-16.html?part=rss&subj=TheOpenRoad
http://www.linux.com/articles/61432
http://gpl3.blogspot.com/2007/07/gplv3-overwhelming-support-if-you-know.html
http://sourceforge.net/

- Ernest Park
The Research Group

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Yes, we did say 5000 GPLv3 Projects
We made a big prediction a few weeks ago (http://gpl3.blogspot.com/2008/03/gpl-project-watch-list-for-week-of-0321.html). If adoption rate continued from this point at 1000 every 4 months unchanged, we would surpass 4000 easily, and adoption rates will. To break it down more, at around 55 per week, 38 weeks remained in the year from this point. This means that if adoption rates remained constant, we would see 2090 more adopted project releases, totaling 4277. How much of a stretch was it to expect the possibility of another 723 project adoptions?
If adoptions increased to 14 per day until the end of the year, up from over 11 at the time of this writing, and two weeks at 20 per day, we would surpass 5000. With an overall growth in the FOSS software inventory of nearly 20% in seven months, an expectation of growth in the daily rate of adoption is both reasonable, and historically accurate.

- Ernest Park
The Research Group

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GNU Affero General Public License version 3 Update
Affero Adoptions
Within the course of this next week, we will now have Affero fully integrated into our statistics, and will adjust our historic public statistics to reflect the update.

As of today, we have 42 new Affero adoptions:

1. 3rd-space


2. AJAX Chat


3. allocPSA


4. Baifox


5. beendoin


6. Bugzilla plugin for rbot


7. CiviCRM


8. dotmac


9. eastwood


10. EIRPG


11. eyeOS


12. Eyes Of Lynx


13. freeside


14. Funambol


15. GNU Herds


16. Hunspell plugin for rbot


17. hyperdump


18. Infonomix


19. ItsNat


20. jPOS


21. Liquid War


22. LogiLogi.org Gallery Generator


23. MyTab


24. OgOg


25. OSN


26. P4A


27. Partystic Sheets


28. Passiflora Project


29. Pbooks


30. plutext-server


31. Poliglota


32. ProcessMaker OSS


33. sovix


34. speedzilla


35. stet


36. Tine 2.0


37. Tournament Pool and Bracket Tracker


38. Veasy


39. WaveMaker Visual Ajax Studio


40. Web nutritiion


41. Wikidot


42. yanunca (yet another nutrition calcluator)
    

Software developers with a pending Affero release, please tell us about it. Send us the name of the project, a detailed description, the URL to th bits, and please tell us why you chose Affero. We will highlight your project in a way to inform our readers about who is using Affero and why.

- Staff

The Research Group

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What they are saying about Affero GPL v3

• FSF Approves Affero GPL for SaaS Apps. By providing for situations in which software is accessible for use over a network, the new license reflects the growing trend toward Software as a Service (SaaS).http://www.linuxinsider.com/story/60414.html


• Will the GPL be overtaken by AGPL? As the software industry increasingly moves to a Software as a Service (SaaS) model, Fabrizio Capobianco of Funambol writes, the AGPL's closing of the "ASP loophole" will become a vital protection for software users.http://blogs.zdnet.com/open-source/?p=2133


• The GPL Has No (Networked) Future. From a purely practical standpoint, including Affero could have seriously damaged the popularity of open software for web applications; possibly driving people to .NET where no such giveback provisions exist. http://www.linux-mag.com/id/3017/


• AGPL is OSI approved. Sweet victory.Now we just need developers to understand that using GPL v3 instead of AGPL v3 is just dumb. Your software is going to be used as a service, if not today, in a few years. Yes, YOUR software. http://www.funambol.com/blog/capo/2008/03/agpl-is-osi-approved-sweet-victory.html


• Open Source Licenses Gone Wild! GPL3 Affero is HereThere are relatively few open source projects using Affero today, but that number is sure to grow. http://tr_1207330531151/=99


• Affero: A new GPL for software as a service. The Affero GPL license is increasingly relevant as companies such as Google employ customized open-source software to run massive online businesses with no requirement for sharing.http://tr_1207330531146/_3-9820397-39.html?%5E$


• GNU Affero GPL version 3 and the "ASP loophole". I think the GNU Affero GPL version 3 license walks a firm middle ground, and I would like to see it tested in the marketplace of ideas and commerce.http://tr_1207330531156//152


• Final version of GPL Affero license is out. The Free Software Foundation, emphasized in a statement that the new license is not based on the previous Affero license, but on the GPL v. 3 released a few months ago. http://blogs.zdnet.com/open-source/?p=1698


• Closing the ASP Loophole? AGPL v3Fabrizio Capobianco, CEO of Funambol, an open source mobile software company, sounded encouraged with the lastest developments with the AGPL v3 (GNU Affero GPL). http://opensourcecommunity.org/2007/06/01/closing-asp-loophole-agpl-v3


• A cure for the "cancer within open source": the OSI approves the Affero GPL. One of open source's biggest failings has been to extend its relevance into the Software as a Service world. The OSI has finally corrected this with the approval of the Affero GPL. http://www.cnet.com/8301-13505_1-9894155-16.html
  
  

- Antony Tran

The Research Group

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Story of the week

OpenOffice.org and the LGPLv3
Last month OpenOffice.org announced that the code for the OpenOffice.org office suite will be released under the Lesser General Public License version 3 (LGPLv3) later this year, beginning with the beta of OpenOffice.org 3.0.

It appears that protection from software patents was a major motivator for this change to the LGPLv3. The LGPLv3 incorporates almost all of the terms of the GPLv3, which includes strong language that requires contributors to grant a license for any patents that may apply to their contribution or else not contribute at all. This protects the OpenOffice.org codebase from any patent claims against it.

The widespread use and distribution of the OpenOffice.org suite via both its inclusion with a number of Linux distributions as well as direct download from the OpenOffice.org web site should engender a level of confidence in the new version 3 of the LGPL and may help increase the adoption rate of that license for other projects.

This move to the LGPLv3 should be a positive thing, a vote of confidence and good news for the Free Software Foundation's new licenses and the open source community in general. The more projects that use widely accepted licenses instead of customized proprietary ones, the better. Wide acceptance leads to a common understanding of terms and expectations for both developers and users.

Note: Here is a look at estimated marketshare worldwide of OpenOffice.

• http://wiki.services.openoffice.org/wiki/Market_Share_Analysis?cid=923666
• http://wiki.services.openoffice.org/wiki/Major_OpenOffice.org_Deployments

References:http://www.openoffice.org/servlets/ReadMsg?list=announce&msgNo=355

- Kevin Howard
The Research Group



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The Research Group (rdgroup@palamida.com)